LEVEL

Entertainment. Not financial advice.

Live
Spot BTC

Coinbase· every few seconds

$81,126.57
+0.43% 24h

Price is +11.03% above the nearest average below — 200-day average at $73,065.

Downsampled: every 4th bar (last still forming)

Analog look-ahead

How far those 64 past stretches are judged. The chart does not change.

In these 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent), tagging the recent high first is 10%-28% likely, losing the average first is 40%-63% likely, and doing neither is 21%-43% likely.

Context (not used in the pattern match)

  • 24h volume 5.1K BTC, 132% above the 30-day average (2.2K BTC)
  • 30-day realized volatility 25% annualized, below the 1-year median (41%)
  • Price is above the 200-day average ($73,065)

24h volume: Coinbase. Daily candles: Kraken. These three readings are not inputs to the lookalike count.

Analog · tagged a high

10%-28% likely
11 of 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent) · next 10 days

No real edge vs. normal

$84,840
high they’d be tagging today

11 of 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent) tagged their high in the next 10 days. If this one rhymes, that high is $84,840 (+4.58% from here). Distance to this level does not change with the horizon.

Count, not a forecast. Historical frequency. Not financial advice.

Base rate. All comparable bars: 190 of 691 tagged a high in the same window.

40%-63% likely
33 of 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent) · next 10 days

No real edge vs. normal

$73,065
200-day average they’d be losing today

33 of 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent) lost the 200-day average under them in the next 10 days. If this one rhymes, that average is $73,065 (-9.94% from here). Distance to this level does not change with the horizon.

Shelf under that: n/a. No further average sits below the 200-day average at $73,065.

Count, not a forecast. Historical frequency. Not financial advice.

Base rate. All comparable bars: 347 of 691 lost the average in the same window.

If that range covers the base rate, the card says there is no real edge. The range is a 95% Wilson interval: how wide that sample is, not a forecast.

Effective sample: 14. Picks are at least 10 bars apart, so neighbouring duplicates are dropped. Spaced picks would be 3 tagged a high, 8 lost the average, and 3 did neither. The 64 above is unchanged.

Same 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent), first touch at 5 / 10 / 20. The ranges on the cards are the 95% Wilson intervals for these counts.
HorizonTagged a highLost the averageStayed in rangeTotal
5d5293064
10d11332064
20d15351464

20 of 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent) stayed in range. No real edge vs. normal. 64 nearest lookalikes on this Kraken window — a sample of similar bars, not all of Bitcoin history. Last bar is still forming. A hit is counted the first time price touches the level within the window; each stretch counts once. Crowd, social, ETF, and policy stay in their own cards. Historical frequency — not a forecast, and not financial advice. Money vs this rhyme: against.

Live price is 4.38% under this Kraken chart’s 20-bar high ($84,840). This still-forming bar’s volume is -0.2σ vs the last 20. Chart fact — not mixed into analog.

Money next to the rhyme

OKX + Hyperliquid + Deribit· about every minute

Against

Money is against lost-average

Rhymes when Bitbo’s flow (only if at least 20 BTC) and perp takers (only if the buy share is outside 48–52%) point the same way as the analog. Against when they point the other way. Mixed when they split, tie, or neither qualifies.

Analog leans lost-average (40%-63% likely · 33 of 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent) lost the average). Bitbo 1d BTC buying against it. perp takers split. Accounts are long-heavy — that can fuel a push or a squeeze.

Open interest
83.9K BTC
OKX + HL + Deribit · perpetuals only · OKX -1.2% 24h
Accounts long / short
65% / 35%
OKX BTC-USDT-SWAP account ratio
Perp takers · 24h
51% buy
$3.2B buy · $3.1B sell
Bitbo 1d BTC
+1.9K BTC
+$152M at live Coinbase — not session USD

Compare only. Exchange books and ETF prints — not on-chain wallet flows, not mixed into the 64 lookalikes (about 14 independent).

More dataChain, calendar, crowd, social, funds, tape→

Averages vs price

Kraken· about every 45 seconds

20-day averageBelow
$81,827
-0.86% vs Bitcoin now
50-day averageBelow
$81,885
-0.93% vs Bitcoin now
200-day averageAbove
$73,065
+11.03% vs Bitcoin now

Disclaimer

LEVEL is general market information, for entertainment. It is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. It is not an investment adviser, broker, or dealer, and not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or bet on Bitcoin or anything else. Nothing here is personalized to you. Optional donations are tips — they buy no service and create no client relationship. Do your own research.

Breakout, drop, and range figures are how often similar past chart stretches tagged the recent high or lost the hold — historical frequency, not a forecast, not a probability, and not a signal to trade. Crowd figures are other venues’ contract prices on their own questions, not LEVEL’s view. Policy watch is keyword hits on public notices, not legal analysis. Live price, averages, ETF flows, headlines, social, policy, and perps come from third-party public feeds LEVEL does not control or verify. They can be late, incomplete, blocked, or wrong. Spot and averages may come from different venues. The last chart bar is still forming. LEVEL’s own math can also be wrong.

Provided as-is, with no warranty of merchantability, fitness for trading or any other purpose, or of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness, and no duty to update, correct, or alert you. Trading Bitcoin can lose money. You are solely responsible for any decision you make. Past resemblance is not future results. as of Oct 28, 5:29 PM.